Accrington ST 1-2 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Peterborough at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Accrington ST vs Peterborough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Accrington ST and Peterborough meet at Wham Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 43. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 18 April 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Accrington ST (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Accrington ST at Wham Stadium this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Accrington ST are significantly better at Wham Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Peterborough have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Peterborough's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Peterborough are 1.20 PPG clear of Accrington ST in recent League One fixtures (1.90 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Accrington ST have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Peterborough in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Accrington ST, 1 for Peterborough and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2022, ended 1–3 with Peterborough winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Accrington ST — key trading statistics (87 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Peterborough — key trading statistics (87 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 48% versus Peterborough 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 53% | Peterborough 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.06 xG and Peterborough 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.884 / defence 1.406 | Peterborough attack 1.287 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.118. Peterborough have an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — the away xG of 2.02 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 87 Accrington ST games / 42 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 19% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 59%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 5.26 | Draw 4.55 | Peterborough 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Peterborough (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Form shows strong BTTS No rates for both sides but Poisson BTTS probability is 57% — current-season attack strengths are higher than recent results suggest.
On the Poisson output, Peterborough are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. This conflicts with form data: Accrington ST 30% | Peterborough 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 19% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG Accrington ST 1.06 / Peterborough 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.884 / def 1.406 | Peterborough attack 1.287 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Peterborough xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Peterborough kick off?
Accrington ST vs Peterborough kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 18 April 2023 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Peterborough?
Accrington ST 1 - 2 Peterborough.
Where is Accrington ST vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Peterborough part of?
Accrington ST vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 19% chance of winning, Peterborough a 59% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Accrington ST and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Peterborough?
Record (1 meetings): Accrington ST 0W | Draws 0 | Peterborough 1W.
What form are Accrington ST and Peterborough in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Peterborough (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Accrington ST's attack rating (0.88) and Peterborough's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Peterborough's attack (1.29x) against Accrington ST's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 2.02.
These ratings are built from 87/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
19%
5.29
22%
4.55
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
0 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
3.09
2.02
Peterborough xG
5.29
19%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
13%
7.57
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
2%
40.02
20%
4.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Accrington ST and 2.02 for Peterborough, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Peterborough?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Accrington ST come into this having played 87 games, going 26W 21D 40L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Peterborough sit at 1.23 PPG from 87 outings (31W 14D 42L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Accrington ST against 1.23 for Peterborough. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Accrington ST's home form reads 17W 11D 15L across 43 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Peterborough have taken 0.93 points per game from 43 outings (12W 4D 27L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Accrington ST come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Accrington ST are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.31 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 87 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Current Season
Peterborough
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 26W 21D 40L in their last 87 games (1.14 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 31W 14D 42L in their last 87 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Peterborough away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.44 PPG; Peterborough away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Accrington ST
0
Draws
2
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Peterborough?
From 2 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 0, Peterborough have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2023, when Accrington ST 1-2 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Peterborough?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 56%, Peterborough 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Accrington ST) and 60% (Peterborough). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Peterborough in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Peterborough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 44% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Accrington ST vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Accrington ST's matches and 60% of Peterborough's.
Do Accrington ST and Peterborough tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Peterborough edge out Accrington ST 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Accrington ST 1-2 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.06 xG and Peterborough 2.02 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.88 / defence 1.41 against Peterborough attack 1.29 / defence 0.89, drawn from 87/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 19% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 59%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 53%, Peterborough 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Peterborough's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.14 PPG, Peterborough 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.