Accrington ST 0-3 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Accrington ST vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Accrington ST host Derby at Wham Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Accrington ST stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Wham Stadium, Accrington ST have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Derby — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Derby have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Accrington ST 1.20 PPG, Derby 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Derby in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 53% versus Derby 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 54% | Derby 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.22 xG and Derby 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 1.092 / defence 1.080 | Derby attack 0.675 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.195. Data: 58 Accrington ST games / 11 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 44% | Draw 29% | Derby 26%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Derby 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Accrington ST as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Accrington ST offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 60% | Derby 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Derby | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 44% | Draw 29% | Derby 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Accrington ST 1.22 / Derby 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 1.092 / def 1.080 | Derby attack 0.675 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Derby xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Derby kick off?
Accrington ST vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Derby?
Accrington ST 0 - 3 Derby.
Where is Accrington ST vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Derby part of?
Accrington ST vs Derby is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 44% chance of winning, Derby a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Accrington ST and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Accrington ST and Derby in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Derby (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Accrington ST's attack at 1.09x the league average against Derby's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Accrington ST's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.41
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.10
0.87
Derby xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
8%
12.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 10.7 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.1 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Accrington ST and 0.87 for Derby, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Accrington ST have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 21W 14D 22L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby's form line: 19W 15D 23L from 57 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Accrington ST on 1.35 PPG, Derby on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Accrington ST have posted 1.71 PPG from 28 outings (13W 9D 6L).
On the road, Derby have gone 4W 8D 16L from 28 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Accrington ST come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Accrington ST are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.00 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 57 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Derby in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 21W 14D 22L in their last 57 games (1.35 PPG), while Derby have gone 19W 15D 23L in their last 57 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Derby away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.71 PPG; Derby away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Accrington ST or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Accrington ST have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Derby in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Accrington ST and Derby runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Accrington ST
0
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Derby?
From 2 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 0, Derby have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 2 January 2023, when Derby 4-0 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Derby see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 64%, Derby 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Accrington ST) and 29% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Derby in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 36% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Accrington ST vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Accrington ST's recent games and 29% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Derby tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Derby in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Derby run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Accrington ST.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Accrington ST 0-3 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.22 xG and Derby 0.87 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Accrington ST fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Derby outscored their 0.87 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 1.09 / defence 1.08 against Derby attack 0.68 / defence 0.84, drawn from 58/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 44% | Draw 29% | Derby 26%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Derby win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 54%, Derby 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derby's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.35 PPG, Derby 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.61 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.