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Shock result as West Brom defy the odds to beat Wrexham 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Brom beat Wrexham 2-3 at Racecourse Ground, Regular Season - 2, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.09 xG and West Brom 1.07 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Wrexham beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. West Brom outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against West Brom attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 1/47 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Wrexham 36% | Draw 29% | West Brom 35%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual West Brom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 47%, West Brom 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wrexham's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.

West Brom's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.43. Form was overturned, with West Brom winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wrexham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. West Brom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights