Wrexham 2-0 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wrexham at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wrexham face Swansea.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Wrexham welcome Swansea to Racecourse Ground in Championship (matchday 38). Kick-off is Friday 13 March 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Wrexham — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Wrexham have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Swansea stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Swansea have gone 3W 0D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Wrexham) versus 1.90 (Swansea). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Wrexham have won 0, Swansea 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Dec 2025, ended Wrexham 1–2 Swansea — a Swansea win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Wrexham trading profile (last 82 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Swansea trading profile (last 82 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wrexham 52% versus Swansea 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wrexham 46% | Swansea 46%). Note also that Swansea surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Wrexham recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wrexham 1.81 xG and Swansea 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wrexham attack 1.239 / defence 1.286 | Swansea attack 0.850 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.197. Wrexham's defence rating of 1.286 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Swansea's projected output up. Data: built from Wrexham's last 36 games and Swansea's last 83.
Result probabilities: Wrexham 48% | Draw 25% | Swansea 27%. Fair-value odds: Wrexham 2.06 | Draw 4.06 | Swansea 3.72. Wrexham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.81 / 1.31) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wrexham as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wrexham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Wrexham's last 10 home games and Swansea's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wrexham 90% (last 10 home games) | Swansea 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wrexham vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, matchday 38 | Venue: Racecourse Ground • Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wrexham 48% | Draw 25% | Swansea 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Wrexham 1.81 / Swansea 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Wrexham attack 1.239 / def 1.286 | Swansea attack 0.850 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Wrexham (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Wrexham xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Swansea xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wrexham vs Swansea FAQs
What time does Wrexham vs Swansea kick off?
Wrexham vs Swansea kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 13 March 2026 at Racecourse Ground.
What was the final score in Wrexham vs Swansea?
Wrexham 2 - 0 Swansea.
Where is Wrexham vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Racecourse Ground.
What competition is Wrexham vs Swansea part of?
Wrexham vs Swansea is a Championship fixture (matchday 38) (England).
Who is favourite to win Wrexham vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Wrexham a 48% chance of winning, Swansea a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Wrexham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Wrexham and Swansea will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wrexham vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wrexham's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Swansea's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. The same calculation in reverse, Swansea's attack versus Wrexham's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wrexham's last 36 games and Swansea's last 83 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
48%
2.06
25%
4.06
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Wrexham xG
Total xG
3.12
1.31
Swansea xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
4%
22.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wrexham vs Swansea Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wrexham vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Wrexham and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Wrexham and 1.31 for Swansea, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Wrexham vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wrexham come into this having played 82 games, going 42W 23D 17L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Swansea sit at 1.38 PPG from 82 outings (32W 17D 33L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Wrexham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Swansea — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Wrexham's home form reads 22W 11D 7L across their last 40 home games, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Swansea have taken 1.05 points per game from their last 40 away games (12W 6D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wrexham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wrexham are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.16 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 82 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wrexham
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
Wrexham (Home) vs Swansea (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wrexham
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
❓ Wrexham vs Swansea Form FAQs
What form are Wrexham and Swansea in coming into this match?
Wrexham have gone 42W 23D 17L in their last 82 games (1.82 PPG), while Swansea have gone 32W 17D 33L in their last 82 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wrexham at home or Swansea away?
Wrexham's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wrexham at home: 1.92 PPG; Swansea away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Wrexham or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Swansea in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2025. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Wrexham
1
Draws
1
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Wrexham vs Swansea H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Swansea?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Wrexham have won 1, Swansea have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Wrexham and Swansea last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Swansea 0-0 Wrexham.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wrexham 60%, Swansea 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Wrexham) and 50% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Wrexham keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Swansea in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wrexham home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wrexham vs Swansea Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wrexham and Swansea matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Wrexham's recent matches and 45% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wrexham and Swansea matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Wrexham's recent games and 50% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wrexham and Swansea matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Wrexham's recent matches and 65% of Swansea's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wrexham cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Swansea.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wrexham beat Swansea 2-0 at Racecourse Ground, Regular Season - 38, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.81 xG and Swansea 1.31 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Swansea landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.24 / defence 1.29 against Swansea attack 0.85 / defence 1.13, drawn from 36/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wrexham 48% | Draw 25% | Swansea 27%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 46%, Swansea 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wrexham's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Swansea's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. Wrexham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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