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QPR cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Wrexham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

QPR beat Wrexham 1-3 at Racecourse Ground, Regular Season - 5, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 2.09 xG and QPR 1.61 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Wrexham fell 1.1 short of their projected output. QPR outscored their 1.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.05 / defence 1.39 against QPR attack 0.97 / defence 1.48, drawn from 4/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wrexham 49% | Draw 21% | QPR 30%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 48%, QPR 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wrexham's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

QPR's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with QPR winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wrexham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. QPR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights