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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Wrexham edge out Portsmouth 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wrexham beat Portsmouth 2-1 at Racecourse Ground, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.89 xG and Portsmouth 1.51 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.26 / defence 1.33 against Portsmouth attack 0.95 / defence 1.15, drawn from 33/78 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wrexham 46% | Draw 24% | Portsmouth 30%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 45%, Portsmouth 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wrexham's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Portsmouth's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights