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Shock result as Wrexham defy the odds to beat Oxford United 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wrexham beat Oxford United 1-0 at Racecourse Ground, Regular Season - 11, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.13 xG and Oxford United 1.56 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Oxford United landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 0.91 / defence 1.40 against Oxford United attack 0.95 / defence 1.03, drawn from 10/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wrexham 28% | Draw 25% | Oxford United 47%, with Oxford United to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Wrexham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 46%, Oxford United 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wrexham's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Oxford United's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Wrexham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Oxford United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights