🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Wrexham and Leicester share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Racecourse Ground, Regular Season - 28, as Wrexham and Leicester drew 1-1 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 2.19 xG and Leicester 1.47 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Wrexham fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.20 / defence 1.24 against Leicester attack 1.03 / defence 1.35, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wrexham 54% | Draw 21% | Leicester 25%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 43%, Leicester 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wrexham's trading profile (65 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Leicester's trading profile (65 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Leicester (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights