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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Hull City edge out Wrexham 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hull City beat Wrexham 1-2 at Racecourse Ground, Regular Season - 37, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.35 xG and Hull City 1.83 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.28 / defence 1.27 against Hull City attack 1.19 / defence 0.82, drawn from 35/82 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wrexham 27% | Draw 25% | Hull City 47%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 46%, Hull City 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wrexham's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Hull City's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Hull City winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wrexham (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.02 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights