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Prediction vindicated as Wrexham edge out Charlton 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wrexham beat Charlton 1-0 at Racecourse Ground, Regular Season - 15, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.24 xG and Charlton 1.23 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Charlton landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.07 / defence 1.23 against Charlton attack 0.87 / defence 0.93, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wrexham 36% | Draw 27% | Charlton 36%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 45%, Charlton 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wrexham's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Charlton's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wrexham 1.83 PPG, Charlton 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wrexham win broke the near-deadlock. Wrexham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights