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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Wrexham cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bristol City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wrexham beat Bristol City 2-0 at Racecourse Ground, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.38 xG and Bristol City 1.37 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bristol City landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.00 / defence 1.11 against Bristol City attack 1.02 / defence 1.06, drawn from 16/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wrexham 37% | Draw 26% | Bristol City 37%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 44%, Bristol City 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wrexham's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bristol City's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wrexham 1.84 PPG, Bristol City 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wrexham win broke the near-deadlock. Wrexham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Bristol City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights