Wolves vs Derby – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolves at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolves vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Molineux Stadium plays host to Wolves versus Derby in Championship, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Tuesday 24 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Wolves's overall Championship record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Wolves have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wolves have posted 3W 4D 3L at Molineux Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Derby have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Derby's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Wolves, 1.00 for Derby — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Wolves have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Derby in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Wolves half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolves 51% versus Derby 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolves 51% | Derby 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolves 1.92 xG and Derby 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolves attack 1.233 / defence 1.219 | Derby attack 0.984 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.246. Data: 5 Wolves games / 52 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolves 45% | Draw 27% | Derby 28%. Fair-value odds: Wolves 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Derby 3.57. Wolves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolves are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wolves if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wolves 70% | Derby 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolves vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Molineux Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolves 45% | Draw 27% | Derby 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 69% | xG Wolves 1.92 / Derby 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Wolves attack 1.233 / def 1.219 | Derby attack 0.984 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Wolves (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Wolves xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Derby xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolves vs Derby kick off?
Wolves vs Derby is scheduled to kick off at 20:00 on Tuesday 24 November 2026 at Molineux Stadium.
Where is Wolves vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Molineux Stadium.
What competition is Wolves vs Derby part of?
Wolves vs Derby is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Wolves vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Wolves a 45% chance of winning, Derby a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wolves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolves vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Wolves and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Wolves vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolves and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wolves and Derby in?
Wolves (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Derby (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Wolves's attack at 1.23x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.98x) against Wolves's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 5/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolves Win
45%
2.22
27%
3.67
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Wolves xG
Total xG
3.41
1.49
Derby xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
15%
6.79
Win to Nil
10%
9.88
4%
24.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolves vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Wolves and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Wolves and 1.49 for Derby, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolves vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Wolves have picked up 0.65 PPG on a 5W 13D 25L record — D-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Wolves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Derby's form line: 20W 5D 18L from 43 games, 1.51 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Derby are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wolves.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Wolves have posted 0.86 PPG from 21 outings (4W 6D 11L).
On the road, Derby have gone 10W 1D 10L from 21 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wolves are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.42 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolves
Early Season
Derby
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolves and Derby in coming into this match?
Wolves have gone 5W 13D 25L in their last 43 games (0.65 PPG), while Derby have gone 20W 5D 18L in their last 43 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolves at home or Derby away?
Derby's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolves at home: 0.86 PPG; Derby away: 1.48 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wolves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolves 57%, Derby 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Wolves and 71% for Derby. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wolves have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolves home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolves play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Wolves's games and 62% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolves vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Wolves's matches and 71% of Derby's.
Do Wolves and Derby tend to score early?
Wolves have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Derby in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.