Wolves vs Derby – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolves at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolves vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Molineux Stadium plays host to Wolves versus Derby in Championship, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Tuesday 24 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Wolves's overall Championship record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Wolves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wolves have posted 4W 4D 2L at Molineux Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Derby have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Wolves's favour (1.70 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Wolves have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Derby in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Wolves half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolves 49% versus Derby 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolves 49% | Derby 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolves 1.93 xG and Derby 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolves attack 1.013 / defence 0.982 | Derby attack 0.898 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.283. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Wolves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Wolves games / 59 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolves 56% | Draw 22% | Derby 22%. Fair-value odds: Wolves 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Derby 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Wolves (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolves are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wolves 60% | Derby 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolves vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Molineux Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolves 56% | Draw 22% | Derby 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Wolves 1.93 / Derby 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Wolves attack 1.013 / def 0.982 | Derby attack 0.898 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Wolves (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Wolves xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Derby xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolves vs Derby kick off?
Wolves vs Derby is scheduled to kick off at 20:00 on Tuesday 24 November 2026 at Molineux Stadium.
Where is Wolves vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Molineux Stadium.
What competition is Wolves vs Derby part of?
Wolves vs Derby is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Wolves vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Wolves a 56% chance of winning, Derby a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Wolves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolves vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Wolves and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Wolves vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolves and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wolves and Derby in?
Wolves (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Derby (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Wolves's attack at 1.01x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.90x) against Wolves's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 13/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolves Win
56%
1.79
22%
4.51
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Wolves xG
Total xG
3.06
1.13
Derby xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
15%
6.86
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
3%
31.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.2 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolves vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Wolves and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Wolves and 1.13 for Derby, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolves vs Derby?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Wolves have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 10W 14D 27L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Wolves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby's form line: 20W 9D 22L from 51 games, 1.35 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Derby are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wolves.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Wolves have posted 1.08 PPG from 26 outings (7W 7D 12L).
On the road, Derby have gone 10W 3D 13L from 26 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Wolves are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.33 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby in 63%.
Last 51 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolves
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolves and Derby in coming into this match?
Wolves have gone 10W 14D 27L in their last 51 games (0.86 PPG), while Derby have gone 20W 9D 22L in their last 51 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolves at home or Derby away?
Derby's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolves at home: 1.08 PPG; Derby away: 1.27 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wolves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolves 54%, Derby 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Wolves) and 65% (Derby). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wolves have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolves home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolves play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Wolves's games and 65% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolves vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Wolves's matches and 65% of Derby's.
Do Wolves and Derby tend to score early?
Wolves have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Derby in 96% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.