Wolves vs Derby – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolves at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolves vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Molineux Stadium plays host to Wolves versus Derby in Championship, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Tuesday 24 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Wolves's overall Championship record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wolves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wolves have posted 4W 4D 2L at Molineux Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Derby have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Wolves's favour (1.70 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Wolves register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Derby in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Wolves half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolves 50% versus Derby 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolves 50% | Derby 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolves 1.81 xG and Derby 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolves attack 1.030 / defence 1.199 | Derby attack 0.913 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.305. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Wolves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Wolves games / 57 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolves 47% | Draw 23% | Derby 31%. Fair-value odds: Wolves 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Derby 3.23. Wolves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolves are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wolves if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wolves 70% | Derby 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolves vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Molineux Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolves 47% | Draw 23% | Derby 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Wolves 1.81 / Derby 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Wolves attack 1.030 / def 1.199 | Derby attack 0.913 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Wolves (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Wolves xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Derby xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolves vs Derby kick off?
Wolves vs Derby is scheduled to kick off at 20:00 on Tuesday 24 November 2026 at Molineux Stadium.
Where is Wolves vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Molineux Stadium.
What competition is Wolves vs Derby part of?
Wolves vs Derby is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Wolves vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Wolves a 47% chance of winning, Derby a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Wolves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolves vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Wolves and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Wolves vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolves and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wolves and Derby in?
Wolves (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Derby (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Wolves's attack at 1.03x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.91x) against Wolves's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 10/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolves Win
47%
2.15
23%
4.38
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Wolves xG
Total xG
3.24
1.43
Derby xG
2.15
47%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
11%
8.97
5%
19.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolves vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Wolves and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Wolves and 1.43 for Derby, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolves vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Wolves have picked up 0.77 PPG on a 8W 13D 27L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Wolves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby's form line: 20W 7D 21L from 48 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Derby are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wolves.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Wolves have posted 0.91 PPG from 23 outings (5W 6D 12L).
On the road, Derby have gone 10W 2D 11L from 23 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wolves are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.35 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby in 60%.
Last 48 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolves
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolves and Derby in coming into this match?
Wolves have gone 8W 13D 27L in their last 48 games (0.77 PPG), while Derby have gone 20W 7D 21L in their last 48 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolves at home or Derby away?
Derby's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolves at home: 0.91 PPG; Derby away: 1.39 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wolves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolves 56%, Derby 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Wolves and 70% for Derby. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wolves have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolves home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolves play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Wolves's games and 65% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolves vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Wolves's matches and 70% of Derby's.
Do Wolves and Derby tend to score early?
Wolves have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Derby in 96% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.