West Ham 1-3 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates West Ham at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Ham vs West Brom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
London Stadium plays host to West Ham versus West Brom in Championship, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 31 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
West Ham have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for West Ham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Ham at London Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
West Brom (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Brom's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward West Ham. A 0.60 PPG lead over West Brom (2.10 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
West Ham half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
West Brom half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 56% versus West Brom 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 64% | West Brom 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.84 xG and West Brom 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 1.394 / defence 1.187 | West Brom attack 0.879 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.283. West Ham carry an above-average attack strength of 1.394 — their λ of 1.84 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 12 West Ham games / 58 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Ham 49% | Draw 23% | West Brom 28%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | West Brom 3.57. West Ham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Ham are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Ham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: West Ham 50% | West Brom 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 49% | Draw 23% | West Brom 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG West Ham 1.84 / West Brom 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 1.394 / def 1.187 | West Brom attack 0.879 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: West Ham (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.34
West Brom xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Ham vs West Brom kick off?
West Ham vs West Brom kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs West Brom?
West Ham 1 - 3 West Brom.
Where is West Ham vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs West Brom part of?
West Ham vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 49% chance of winning, West Brom a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making West Ham the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both West Ham and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will West Ham vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and West Brom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are West Ham and West Brom in?
West Ham (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. West Brom (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from West Ham's attack rating (1.39) and West Brom's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — West Brom's attack (0.88x) against West Ham's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 12/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
West Ham Win
49%
2.03
23%
4.39
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
West Ham xG
Total xG
3.17
1.34
West Brom xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
4%
22.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.3 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are West Ham and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for West Ham and 1.34 for West Brom, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
West Ham come into this having played 50 games, going 16W 13D 21L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, West Brom sit at 1.20 PPG from 50 outings (15W 15D 20L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for West Ham against 1.20 for West Brom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
West Ham's home form reads 9W 5D 11L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, West Brom have taken 0.80 points per game from 25 outings (5W 5D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Ham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
West Ham are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.10 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Blended
West Brom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Ham and West Brom in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 16W 13D 21L in their last 50 games (1.22 PPG), while West Brom have gone 15W 15D 20L in their last 50 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or West Brom away?
West Ham's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.28 PPG; West Brom away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
West Ham
0
Draws
1
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and West Brom?
From 1 meetings on record, West Ham have won 0, West Brom have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when West Ham 1-3 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and West Brom?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
West Ham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
West Brom see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Ham 60%, West Brom 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (West Ham) and 48% (West Brom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: West Brom in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Ham play West Brom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of West Ham's games and 52% of West Brom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is West Ham vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of West Ham's matches and 48% of West Brom's.
Do West Ham and West Brom tend to score early?
West Ham have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, West Brom in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
West Brom cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over West Ham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom beat West Ham 1-3 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.84 xG and West Brom 1.34 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. West Ham fell 0.8 short of their projected output. West Brom outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 1.39 / defence 1.19 against West Brom attack 0.88 / defence 0.90, drawn from 12/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 49% | Draw 23% | West Brom 28%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual West Brom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 64%, West Brom 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
West Brom's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Ham 1.22 PPG, West Brom 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Brom win broke the near-deadlock. West Ham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. West Brom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.