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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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West Brom and Wrexham share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 40, as West Brom and Wrexham drew 2-2 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.28 xG and Wrexham 1.27 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.96 / defence 1.06 against Wrexham attack 1.01 / defence 1.03, drawn from 85/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Brom 36% | Draw 29% | Wrexham 35%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 41%, Wrexham 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Brom's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Wrexham's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. West Brom (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.02 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wrexham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights