West Brom 0-2 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Brom at 56%, yet in-form Swansea provide a compelling counter-argument — this West Brom vs Swansea fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Swansea make the trip to The Hawthorns to face West Brom in Championship, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Monday 28 February 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
West Brom's overall Championship record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
West Brom's home record at The Hawthorns: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Championship appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Hawthorns. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — West Brom are significantly better at The Hawthorns than their overall form suggests.
Swansea have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Championship this season, Swansea have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Swansea arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — West Brom have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Swansea in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — West Brom lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Swansea winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
West Brom — key trading statistics (31 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 45% of games.
Swansea — key trading statistics (31 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 29% versus Swansea 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 32% | Swansea 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.37 xG and Swansea 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 0.842 / defence 0.887 | Swansea attack 0.610 / defence 1.519. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 1.068. Swansea bring a strong defensive rating of 1.519 — this is suppressing West Brom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 West Brom games / 31 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 56% | Draw 28% | Swansea 16%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 1.79 | Draw 3.57 | Swansea 6.25. The model has a clear lean to West Brom (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Swansea's lower xG of 0.58 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Swansea (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: West Brom 20% | Swansea 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Monday 28 Feb 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 56% | Draw 28% | Swansea 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 33% | xG West Brom 1.37 / Swansea 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 0.842 / def 0.887 | Swansea attack 0.610 / def 1.519 | league avg home 1.074 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: West Brom (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Swansea xG
33%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Swansea kick off?
West Brom vs Swansea kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 28 February 2022 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Swansea?
West Brom 0 - 2 Swansea.
Where is West Brom vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Swansea part of?
West Brom vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 56% chance of winning, Swansea a 16% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both West Brom and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Swansea?
Record (1 meetings): West Brom 0W | Draws 0 | Swansea 1W.
What form are West Brom and Swansea in?
West Brom (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Swansea (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates West Brom's attack at 0.84x the league average against Swansea's defence at 1.52x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Swansea's attack (0.61x) against West Brom's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.58.
These ratings are built from 33/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.7%), 2-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
56%
1.77
28%
3.58
16%
6.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
West Brom xG
Total xG
1.95
0.58
Swansea xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
6.39
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.05
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
56%
1.78
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
32%
3.16
4%
25.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.5 | 11.3 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are West Brom and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for West Brom and 0.58 for Swansea, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Swansea?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
West Brom come into this having played 31 games, going 11W 9D 11L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Swansea sit at 1.23 PPG from 31 outings (10W 8D 13L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for West Brom against 1.23 for Swansea. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
West Brom's home form reads 7W 6D 1L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — West Brom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Swansea have taken 0.71 points per game from 14 outings (2W 4D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Swansea's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
West Brom are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.03 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Brom have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Swansea in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Swansea in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 11W 9D 11L in their last 31 games (1.35 PPG), while Swansea have gone 10W 8D 13L in their last 31 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Swansea away?
West Brom's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.93 PPG; Swansea away: 0.71 PPG.
Have West Brom or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Swansea in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 1 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Brom have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Swansea — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
West Brom
1
Draws
6
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Swansea?
From 10 meetings on record, West Brom have won 3, Swansea have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2026, when Swansea 1-0 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Swansea?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
West Brom see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 29%, Swansea 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (West Brom) and 57% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; West Brom have failed to score in 29% of games; Swansea in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Swansea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of West Brom's recent matches and 43% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of West Brom's recent games and 57% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Swansea tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Swansea in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swansea cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over West Brom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat West Brom 0-2 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.37 xG and Swansea 0.58 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. West Brom fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Swansea outscored their 0.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.84 / defence 0.89 against Swansea attack 0.61 / defence 1.52, drawn from 33/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 56% | Draw 28% | Swansea 16%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Swansea win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 32%, Swansea 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (31 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Swansea's trading profile (31 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Brom 1.35 PPG, Swansea 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.