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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as West Brom edge out Swansea 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Brom beat Swansea 3-2 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 18, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.19 xG and Swansea 0.78 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. West Brom beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Swansea outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.91 / defence 0.87 against Swansea attack 0.74 / defence 1.01, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Brom 45% | Draw 30% | Swansea 24%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 38%, Swansea 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Brom's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Swansea's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — West Brom 1.37 PPG, Swansea 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Brom win broke the near-deadlock. West Brom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights