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Shock result as Sunderland defy the odds to beat West Brom 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sunderland beat West Brom 0-1 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 40, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.41 xG and Sunderland 0.95 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. West Brom fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.08 / defence 0.87 against Sunderland attack 1.08 / defence 0.99, drawn from 85/85 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Brom 48% | Draw 27% | Sunderland 25%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Sunderland win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 40%, Sunderland 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Brom's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Sunderland's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — West Brom 1.53 PPG, Sunderland 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Sunderland (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights