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Stalemate at West Brom's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 31, as West Brom and Stoke City drew 0-0 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.09 xG and Stoke City 1.36 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. West Brom fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Stoke City landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.00 / defence 1.37 against Stoke City attack 0.88 / defence 0.83, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Brom 29% | Draw 29% | Stoke City 42%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 43%, Stoke City 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Brom's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Stoke City's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — West Brom 1.26 PPG, Stoke City 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights