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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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West Brom and Stoke City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Brom and Stoke City finished level at 1-1 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 27, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.35 xG and Stoke City 0.58 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.01 / defence 0.78 against Stoke City attack 0.74 / defence 0.96, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Brom 54% | Draw 31% | Stoke City 15%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 43%, Stoke City 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Brom's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Stoke City's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, West Brom arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights