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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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West Brom and Southampton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 37, as West Brom and Southampton drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.47 xG and Southampton 1.82 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Southampton landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.85 / defence 1.20 against Southampton attack 1.25 / defence 1.33, drawn from 82/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Brom 30% | Draw 25% | Southampton 45%, with Southampton to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 41%, Southampton 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Brom's trading profile (73 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Southampton's trading profile (73 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — West Brom 1.14 PPG, Southampton 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Southampton (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights