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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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West Brom and Sheffield Utd share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 19, as West Brom and Sheffield Utd drew 2-2 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 0.80 xG and Sheffield Utd 0.79 xG, a combined 1.59. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. West Brom beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sheffield Utd outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.70 / defence 0.76 against Sheffield Utd attack 1.00 / defence 0.84, drawn from 64/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Brom 31% | Draw 38% | Sheffield Utd 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 41%, Sheffield Utd 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Brom's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Sheffield Utd's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, West Brom arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. West Brom (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights