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Prediction vindicated as West Brom edge out QPR 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Brom beat QPR 2-1 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 24, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.46 xG and QPR 1.01 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.98 / defence 0.97 against QPR attack 0.90 / defence 1.07, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Brom 47% | Draw 28% | QPR 25%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 41%, QPR 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Brom's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

QPR's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — West Brom 1.33 PPG, QPR 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Brom win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights