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Prediction vindicated as West Brom edge out QPR 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Brom beat QPR 1-0 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 36, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.40 xG and QPR 0.77 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.12 / defence 0.88 against QPR attack 0.84 / defence 0.93, drawn from 81/81 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Brom 51% | Draw 29% | QPR 20%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 42%, QPR 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Brom's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

QPR's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — West Brom 1.54 PPG, QPR 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Brom win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights