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Prediction vindicated as West Brom edge out Preston 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Brom beat Preston 2-1 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 10, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.08 xG and Preston 1.00 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. West Brom beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.92 / defence 0.92 against Preston attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Brom 36% | Draw 32% | Preston 32%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 36%, Preston 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Brom's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Preston's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — West Brom 1.42 PPG, Preston 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Brom win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights