🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

West Brom cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Preston.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Brom beat Preston 3-1 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 25, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.38 xG and Preston 0.71 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. West Brom beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.91 / defence 0.74 against Preston attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Brom 52% | Draw 30% | Preston 18%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 43%, Preston 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Brom's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Preston's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — West Brom 1.56 PPG, Preston 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Brom win broke the near-deadlock. West Brom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm. Preston (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights