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Dominant West Brom run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Portsmouth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Brom beat Portsmouth 5-1 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 29, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 2.17 xG and Portsmouth 0.59 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. West Brom beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.00 / defence 0.80 against Portsmouth attack 0.71 / defence 1.58, drawn from 74/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Brom 73% | Draw 19% | Portsmouth 8%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 42%, Portsmouth 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Brom's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Portsmouth's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — West Brom 1.55 PPG, Portsmouth 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Brom win broke the near-deadlock. West Brom (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm. Portsmouth (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights