West Brom 1-0 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Brom at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Brom vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Plymouth travel to The Hawthorns to take on West Brom. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 September 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
West Brom — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. West Brom have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, West Brom have posted 5W 3D 2L at The Hawthorns — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Hawthorns. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Championship games this season, Plymouth have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Plymouth have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plymouth's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, West Brom have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for West Brom, 0 for Plymouth and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2024, ended 3–0 with West Brom winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
West Brom in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Plymouth in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 45% versus Plymouth 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 47% | Plymouth 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.49 xG and Plymouth 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 0.911 / defence 0.730 | Plymouth attack 0.825 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.118. West Brom's defence rating of 0.730 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 West Brom games / 51 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 57% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 17%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Plymouth 5.88. The model has a clear lean to West Brom (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: West Brom 20% | Plymouth 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 57% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 38% | xG West Brom 1.49 / Plymouth 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 0.911 / def 0.730 | Plymouth attack 0.825 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: West Brom (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Plymouth xG
38%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Plymouth kick off?
West Brom vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Plymouth?
West Brom 1 - 0 Plymouth.
Where is West Brom vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Plymouth part of?
West Brom vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 57% chance of winning, Plymouth a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both West Brom and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Plymouth?
Record (2 meetings): West Brom 1W | Draws 1 | Plymouth 0W.
What form are West Brom and Plymouth in?
West Brom (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Plymouth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from West Brom's attack rating (0.91) and Plymouth's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus West Brom's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
57%
1.76
26%
3.81
17%
5.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.16
0.67
Plymouth xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
5.95
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
29%
3.44
4%
26.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 11.5 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are West Brom and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for West Brom and 0.67 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Plymouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, West Brom have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 24W 14D 13L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for West Brom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plymouth's form line: 14W 14D 23L from 51 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Plymouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, West Brom are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Plymouth.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, West Brom have posted 2.04 PPG from 25 outings (15W 6D 4L).
On the road, Plymouth have gone 3W 8D 14L from 25 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
West Brom are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.25 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Early Season
Plymouth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Plymouth in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 24W 14D 13L in their last 51 games (1.69 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 14W 14D 23L in their last 51 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Plymouth away?
West Brom's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 2.04 PPG; Plymouth away: 0.68 PPG.
Have West Brom or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Plymouth in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between West Brom and Plymouth runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Feb 2024, when West Brom won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
West Brom's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
West Brom
1
Draws
1
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, West Brom have won 2, Plymouth have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Plymouth 2-1 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Plymouth?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 32%, Plymouth 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (West Brom) and 48% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Plymouth in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of West Brom's recent matches and 52% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of West Brom's recent games and 48% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Plymouth tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as West Brom edge out Plymouth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom beat Plymouth 1-0 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 6, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.49 xG and Plymouth 0.67 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.91 / defence 0.73 against Plymouth attack 0.82 / defence 1.17, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 57% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 17%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 47%, Plymouth 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Plymouth's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, West Brom arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.