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Prediction vindicated as West Brom edge out Oxford United 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Brom beat Oxford United 2-1 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 15, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.07 xG and Oxford United 0.85 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. West Brom beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.88 / defence 0.82 against Oxford United attack 0.90 / defence 0.99, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Brom 40% | Draw 31% | Oxford United 28%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 37%, Oxford United 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Brom's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Oxford United's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — West Brom 1.37 PPG, Oxford United 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Brom win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights