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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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West Brom and Leicester share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Brom and Leicester finished level at 1-1 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 7, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.34 xG and Leicester 1.02 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.94 / defence 0.91 against Leicester attack 0.94 / defence 1.15, drawn from 52/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Brom 44% | Draw 27% | Leicester 28%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 34%, Leicester 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Brom's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Leicester's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, West Brom arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Leicester (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights