West Brom 1-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates West Brom at 47% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Brom vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
West Brom and Hull City meet at The Hawthorns in Championship (matchday 38). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
West Brom's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
West Brom at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — West Brom are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Hull City have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Hull City away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, West Brom have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins, with Hull City managing 1 and 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2024, ended West Brom 2–1 Hull City — a West Brom win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both West Brom and goals — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
West Brom — key trading statistics (last 83 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Hull City — key trading statistics (last 83 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 51% versus Hull City 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 41% | Hull City 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.26 xG and Hull City 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 1.095 / defence 0.837 | Hull City attack 0.923 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.032. Data: built from West Brom's last 83 games and Hull City's last 83.
Result probabilities: West Brom 47% | Draw 30% | Hull City 23%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 2.13 | Draw 3.36 | Hull City 4.30. West Brom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (West Brom 5 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Brom if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: West Brom 50% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, matchday 38 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Saturday 15 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 47% | Draw 30% | Hull City 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG West Brom 1.26 / Hull City 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 1.095 / def 0.837 | Hull City attack 0.923 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: West Brom (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Hull City xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ West Brom vs Hull City FAQs
What time does West Brom vs Hull City kick off?
West Brom vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 15 March 2025 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Hull City?
West Brom 1 - 1 Hull City.
Where is West Brom vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Hull City part of?
West Brom vs Hull City is a Championship fixture (matchday 38) (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 47% chance of winning, Hull City a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both West Brom and Hull City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will West Brom vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from West Brom's attack rating (1.09) and Hull City's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (0.92x) against West Brom's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from West Brom's last 83 games and Hull City's last 83 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
47%
2.13
30%
3.36
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.06
0.80
Hull City xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
7%
15.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ West Brom vs Hull City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are West Brom and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for West Brom and 0.80 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
West Brom come into this having played 83 games, going 33W 30D 20L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.33 PPG from 83 outings (29W 23D 31L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for West Brom against 1.33 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
West Brom's home form reads 23W 12D 6L across their last 41 home games, a 1.98 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — West Brom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.41 points per game from their last 41 away games (17W 7D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
West Brom are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.28 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 83 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
West Brom (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
West Brom
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ West Brom vs Hull City Form FAQs
What form are West Brom and Hull City in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 33W 30D 20L in their last 83 games (1.55 PPG), while Hull City have gone 29W 23D 31L in their last 83 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Hull City away?
West Brom's home record (1.98 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.98 PPG; Hull City away: 1.41 PPG.
Have West Brom or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Hull City in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between West Brom and Hull City, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: West Brom won West Brom 5-2 Hull City on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Brom have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
West Brom
2
Draws
2
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ West Brom vs Hull City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Hull City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, West Brom have won 6, Hull City have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Hull City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: West Brom 3-0 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Hull City?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 34%, Hull City 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (West Brom) and 54% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; West Brom have failed to score in 27% of games; Hull City in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ West Brom vs Hull City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in West Brom and Hull City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of West Brom's recent matches and 54% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are West Brom and Hull City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of West Brom's recent games and 54% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Hull City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of West Brom's recent matches and 68% of Hull City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
West Brom and Hull City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 38, as West Brom and Hull City drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.26 xG and Hull City 0.80 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.09 / defence 0.84 against Hull City attack 0.92 / defence 0.86, drawn from 83/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 47% | Draw 30% | Hull City 23%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 41%, Hull City 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Hull City's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Brom 1.55 PPG, Hull City 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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