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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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West Brom and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Brom and Charlton finished level at 1-1 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.32 xG and Charlton 1.17 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.86 / defence 1.25 against Charlton attack 0.79 / defence 1.18, drawn from 79/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Brom 39% | Draw 29% | Charlton 32%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 42%, Charlton 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Brom's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Charlton's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — West Brom 1.24 PPG, Charlton 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights