West Brom 0-0 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Brom at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Brom vs Cardiff fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
West Brom host Cardiff at The Hawthorns in Championship, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 17 August 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
West Brom — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. West Brom have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, West Brom have posted 4W 4D 2L at The Hawthorns — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Hawthorns.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cardiff stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cardiff have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Cardiff have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (West Brom) versus 1.30 (Cardiff). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for West Brom, 0 for Cardiff and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
West Brom in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Cardiff in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 37% versus Cardiff 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 39% | Cardiff 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.41 xG and Cardiff 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 0.992 / defence 0.959 | Cardiff attack 0.984 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 0.990. Data: 49 West Brom games / 49 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 48% | Draw 28% | Cardiff 25%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Cardiff 4.00. West Brom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on West Brom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: West Brom 40% | Cardiff 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Aug 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 48% | Draw 28% | Cardiff 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG West Brom 1.41 / Cardiff 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 0.992 / def 0.959 | Cardiff attack 0.984 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.324 / away 0.990 • Poisson stance: West Brom (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Cardiff xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Cardiff kick off?
West Brom vs Cardiff kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 17 August 2022 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Cardiff?
West Brom 0 - 0 Cardiff.
Where is West Brom vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Cardiff part of?
West Brom vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 48% chance of winning, Cardiff a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both West Brom and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Cardiff?
Record (2 meetings): West Brom 1W | Draws 1 | Cardiff 0W.
What form are West Brom and Cardiff in?
West Brom (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Cardiff (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from West Brom's attack rating (0.99) and Cardiff's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus West Brom's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
48%
2.10
28%
3.63
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.34
0.93
Cardiff xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
6%
16.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.6 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are West Brom and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for West Brom and 0.93 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
West Brom's recent record stands at 18W 15D 16L from 49 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for West Brom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cardiff, meanwhile, have gone 17W 8D 24L across 49 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cardiff, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: West Brom on 1.41 PPG, Cardiff on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, West Brom have managed 12W 9D 3L from 24 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — West Brom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cardiff's away record stands at 8W 4D 12L across 24 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
West Brom are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.08 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Early Season
Cardiff
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Cardiff in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 18W 15D 16L in their last 49 games (1.41 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 17W 8D 24L in their last 49 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Cardiff away?
West Brom's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.88 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.17 PPG.
Have West Brom or Cardiff been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Cardiff in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2021, when West Brom won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
West Brom's record when hosting Cardiff specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
West Brom
5
Draws
0
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Cardiff?
From 8 meetings on record, West Brom have won 3, Cardiff have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Cardiff 0-0 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Cardiff?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
West Brom see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 38%, Cardiff 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (West Brom) and 67% (Cardiff).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Cardiff?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of West Brom's recent matches and 62% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of West Brom's recent games and 67% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Cardiff tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at West Brom's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom and Cardiff finished level at 0-0 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 4, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.41 xG and Cardiff 0.93 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. West Brom fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Cardiff landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.99 / defence 0.96 against Cardiff attack 0.98 / defence 1.07, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 48% | Draw 28% | Cardiff 25%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 39%, Cardiff 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cardiff's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Brom 1.41 PPG, Cardiff 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.