West Brom vs Bristol City – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bristol City at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Brom vs Bristol City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
West Brom and Bristol City meet at The Hawthorns in Championship, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
West Brom (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, West Brom have posted 4W 5D 1L at The Hawthorns — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bristol City's overall Championship record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bristol City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bristol City's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced 5 wins for West Brom, 3 for Bristol City and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with West Brom winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
West Brom — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Bristol City — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 54% versus Bristol City 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 46% | Bristol City 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.37 xG and Bristol City 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 0.909 / defence 0.964 | Bristol City attack 1.119 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.283. Data: 59 West Brom games / 59 Bristol City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 37% | Draw 26% | Bristol City 37%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Bristol City 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: West Brom 50% | Bristol City 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Bristol City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 37% | Draw 26% | Bristol City 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG West Brom 1.37 / Bristol City 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 0.909 / def 0.964 | Bristol City attack 1.119 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Bristol City xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Bristol City kick off?
West Brom vs Bristol City is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at The Hawthorns.
Where is West Brom vs Bristol City being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Bristol City part of?
West Brom vs Bristol City is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Bristol City?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 37% chance of winning, Bristol City a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Bristol City?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both West Brom and Bristol City will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Bristol City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Bristol City?
Record (10 meetings): West Brom 5W | Draws 2 | Bristol City 3W.
What form are West Brom and Bristol City in?
West Brom (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Bristol City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates West Brom's attack at 0.91x the league average against Bristol City's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bristol City's attack (1.12x) against West Brom's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bristol City Win
37%
2.71
26%
3.90
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.76
1.38
Bristol City xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
9%
10.80
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Bristol City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are West Brom and Bristol City expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for West Brom and 1.38 for Bristol City, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Bristol City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
West Brom's recent record stands at 20W 17D 22L from 59 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bristol City, meanwhile, have gone 22W 14D 23L across 59 games — 1.36 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Bristol City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for West Brom against 1.36 for Bristol City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, West Brom have managed 11W 12D 6L from 29 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bristol City's away record stands at 10W 10D 9L across 29 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
West Brom are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Bristol City are on 1.25 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Blended
Bristol City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Bristol City in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 20W 17D 22L in their last 59 games (1.31 PPG), while Bristol City have gone 22W 14D 23L in their last 59 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Bristol City away?
West Brom's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.55 PPG; Bristol City away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: West Brom won 3-0 on 23 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Brom have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bristol City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
West Brom
2
Draws
3
Bristol City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Bristol City?
From 10 meetings on record, West Brom have won 5, Bristol City have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Bristol City last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Bristol City 0-1 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Bristol City?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bristol City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 55%, Bristol City 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (West Brom) and 48% (Bristol City).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; West Brom have failed to score in 28% of games; Bristol City in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Bristol City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Bristol City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of West Brom's games and 59% of Bristol City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is West Brom vs Bristol City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of West Brom's recent games and 48% of Bristol City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Bristol City tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Bristol City in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.