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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as West Brom edge out Blackburn 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Brom beat Blackburn 1-0 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 1, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.36 xG and Blackburn 1.01 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Blackburn landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.12 / defence 1.08 against Blackburn attack 0.95 / defence 0.91, drawn from 46/46 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Brom 45% | Draw 27% | Blackburn 28%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 37%, Blackburn 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Brom's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Blackburn's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — West Brom 1.39 PPG, Blackburn 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Brom win broke the near-deadlock. West Brom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Blackburn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights