🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

West Brom and Birmingham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Brom and Birmingham finished level at 1-1 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.23 xG and Birmingham 0.69 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.92 / defence 0.85 against Birmingham attack 0.68 / defence 1.02, drawn from 62/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Brom 49% | Draw 30% | Birmingham 21%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 39%, Birmingham 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Brom's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Birmingham's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Birmingham arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights