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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Championship · Regular Season - 9

Kick-off

Sat 4 Oct 2025

15:00

Venue

Vicarage Road

Competition

Championship

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Oxford United Win

34%

Watford

2.90

30%

Draw

3.30

35%

Oxford United

2.84

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

13.2%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

11.5%

Away win

1 – 0

11.3%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.15

Watford xG

Total xG

2.32

1.17

Oxford United xG

34%
30%
35%
WatfordDrawOxford United

2.90

34%

Home win

3.30

30%

Draw

2.84

35%

Away win

Goals Markets

67%

Over 1.5

1.49

33%

Under 1.5

3.03

41%

Over 2.5

2.44

59%

Under 2.5

1.69

21%

Over 3.5

4.76

79%

Under 3.5

1.27

9%

Over 4.5

11.11

91%

Under 4.5

1.10

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

48%

BTTS Yes

2.07

52%

BTTS No

1.93

Clean Sheet

31%

Watford

3.22

32%

Oxford United

3.17

Win to Nil

11%

Watford

9.36

11%

Oxford United

8.98

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.8 11.5 6.7 2.6 0.8 0.2
1 11.3 13.2 7.7 3.0 0.9 0.2
2 6.5 7.6 4.5 1.7 0.5 0.1
3 2.5 2.9 1.7 0.7 0.2
4 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.153
λ Away (xG) 1.170
Total xG 2.323
League avg home goals 1.189
League avg away goals 1.183
Watford attack strength 0.998
Watford defence strength 1.012
Oxford United attack strength 0.977
Oxford United defence strength 0.972
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 54 / 54