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Prediction vindicated as Swansea edge out Wrexham 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swansea beat Wrexham 2-1 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.06 xG and Wrexham 0.89 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Swansea beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.88 / defence 1.06 against Wrexham attack 0.69 / defence 0.87, drawn from 67/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swansea 38% | Draw 32% | Wrexham 29%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 46%, Wrexham 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swansea's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Wrexham's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Swansea winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wrexham (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights