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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Swansea run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Sheffield Wednesday.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swansea beat Sheffield Wednesday 4-0 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.73 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 0.77 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Swansea beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.05 / defence 1.02 against Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.66 / defence 1.27, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swansea 59% | Draw 26% | Sheffield Wednesday 15%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 46%, Sheffield Wednesday 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swansea's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Swansea arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights