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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sheffield Utd edge out Swansea 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sheffield Utd beat Swansea 1-2 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.29 xG and Sheffield Utd 1.43 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.09 / defence 1.19 against Sheffield Utd attack 1.24 / defence 0.86, drawn from 73/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swansea 33% | Draw 28% | Sheffield Utd 39%, with Sheffield Utd to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 54%, Sheffield Utd 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swansea's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Sheffield Utd's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swansea 1.31 PPG, Sheffield Utd 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sheffield Utd win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights