Swansea vs QPR – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Swansea at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swansea vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Swansea.com Stadium plays host to Swansea versus QPR in Championship, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Tuesday 29 December 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Swansea's overall Championship record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Swansea have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Swansea at Swansea.com Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Swansea.com Stadium.
QPR have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. QPR have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
QPR's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Swansea's favour (2.10 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Swansea 4W, QPR 3W, 3D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 10 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Swansea winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Swansea half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
QPR half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 52% versus QPR 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 50% | QPR 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.34 xG and QPR 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.963 / defence 0.748 | QPR attack 1.135 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.305. Swansea's defence rating of 0.748 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Swansea games / 50 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 39% | Draw 34% | QPR 27%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | QPR 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Swansea are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Swansea if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Swansea 40% | QPR 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 Dec 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 39% | Draw 34% | QPR 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Swansea 1.34 / QPR 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.963 / def 0.748 | QPR attack 1.135 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Swansea (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.11
QPR xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs QPR kick off?
Swansea vs QPR is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Tuesday 29 December 2026 at Swansea.com Stadium.
Where is Swansea vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs QPR part of?
Swansea vs QPR is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 39% chance of winning, QPR a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Swansea and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and QPR?
Record (10 meetings): Swansea 4W | Draws 3 | QPR 3W.
What form are Swansea and QPR in?
Swansea (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. QPR (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Swansea's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — QPR's attack (1.14x) against Swansea's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
39%
2.59
34%
2.93
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.45
1.11
QPR xG
2.59
39%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
7%
14.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Swansea and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Swansea and 1.11 for QPR, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Swansea's recent record stands at 21W 11D 18L from 50 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Swansea, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 20L across 50 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for QPR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Swansea against 1.36 for QPR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Swansea have managed 12W 7D 6L from 25 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 8W 7D 10L across 25 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swansea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Swansea are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.36 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR in 64%.
Last 50 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Early Season
QPR
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and QPR in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 21W 11D 18L in their last 50 games (1.48 PPG), while QPR have gone 19W 11D 20L in their last 50 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or QPR away?
Swansea's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.72 PPG; QPR away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Swansea or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, QPR in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Swansea won 3-0 on 26 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swansea have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Swansea
3
Draws
3
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and QPR?
From 10 meetings on record, Swansea have won 4, QPR have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when QPR 1-2 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and QPR?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 56%, QPR 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Swansea) and 52% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; QPR in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play QPR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Swansea's games and 56% of QPR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Swansea vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Swansea's recent games and 52% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and QPR tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, QPR in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.