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Shock result as QPR defy the odds to beat Swansea 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

QPR beat Swansea 0-1 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.56 xG and QPR 1.41 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Swansea fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.00 / defence 1.12 against QPR attack 1.08 / defence 1.30, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swansea 41% | Draw 24% | QPR 34%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 43%, QPR 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swansea's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

QPR's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swansea 1.32 PPG, QPR 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. QPR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights