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Dominant Swansea run riot with a 3-0 hammering of QPR.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swansea beat QPR 3-0 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.13 xG and QPR 1.17 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Swansea beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. QPR landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.99 / defence 1.29 against QPR attack 0.88 / defence 0.81, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swansea 33% | Draw 32% | QPR 35%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Swansea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 52%, QPR 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swansea's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

QPR's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swansea 1.24 PPG, QPR 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights