Swansea 1-0 Preston – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swansea at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swansea vs Preston fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 28 as Swansea welcome Preston to Swansea.com Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Swansea have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Swansea.com Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Swansea.com Stadium.
Preston — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Preston, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Preston's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Swansea 1.10 PPG, Preston 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Swansea, 1 for Preston and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 1–3 with Preston winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Swansea in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Preston in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 52% versus Preston 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 56% | Preston 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.29 xG and Preston 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 1.006 / defence 1.293 | Preston attack 0.805 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.042 / away 1.182. Preston bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Swansea's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Swansea games / 25 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 37% | Draw 28% | Preston 35%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Preston 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Swansea as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swansea offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Swansea 50% | Preston 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 37% | Draw 28% | Preston 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Swansea 1.29 / Preston 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 1.006 / def 1.293 | Preston attack 0.805 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.042 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Swansea (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Preston xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Preston kick off?
Swansea vs Preston kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Preston?
Swansea 1 - 0 Preston.
Where is Swansea vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Preston part of?
Swansea vs Preston is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 37% chance of winning, Preston a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Swansea and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Preston?
Record (1 meetings): Swansea 0W | Draws 0 | Preston 1W.
What form are Swansea and Preston in?
Swansea (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Preston (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Swansea's attack at 1.01x the league average against Preston's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Preston's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
37%
2.67
28%
3.59
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.52
1.23
Preston xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
11%
9.14
10%
10.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Swansea and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Swansea and 1.23 for Preston, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swansea come into this having played 23 games, going 7W 7D 9L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Preston sit at 1.43 PPG from 23 outings (8W 9D 6L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Preston is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swansea on 1.22 PPG, Preston on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Swansea's home form reads 4W 4D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Preston have taken 1.09 points per game from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Swansea are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.17 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Preston in 61%.
Defensively: Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
Preston
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Preston in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 7W 7D 9L in their last 23 games (1.22 PPG), while Preston have gone 8W 9D 6L in their last 23 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Preston away?
Swansea's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.45 PPG; Preston away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Swansea or Preston been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Preston in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 24 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2024, when Swansea won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Swansea's record when hosting Preston specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Swansea
2
Draws
4
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Preston?
From 10 meetings on record, Swansea have won 4, Preston have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2026, when Swansea 1-1 Preston.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Preston see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 46%, Preston 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Swansea) and 54% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Swansea have failed to score in 27% of games; Preston in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Preston?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Swansea's recent matches and 46% of Preston's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Swansea's recent games and 54% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Preston tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Preston in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Swansea edge out Preston 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Preston 1-0 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.29 xG and Preston 1.23 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Preston landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.01 / defence 1.29 against Preston attack 0.81 / defence 1.23, drawn from 23/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 37% | Draw 28% | Preston 35%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 56%, Preston 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Preston's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.22 PPG, Preston 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.