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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Swansea defy the odds to beat Norwich 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swansea beat Norwich 2-1 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.05 xG and Norwich 1.14 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Swansea beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.87 / defence 1.08 against Norwich attack 0.92 / defence 1.01, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swansea 33% | Draw 29% | Norwich 38%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Swansea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 42%, Norwich 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swansea's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Norwich's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swansea 1.30 PPG, Norwich 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights