🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Ipswich run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Swansea.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ipswich beat Swansea 1-4 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.22 xG and Ipswich 1.40 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Ipswich outscored their 1.40 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.93 / defence 1.09 against Ipswich attack 1.11 / defence 1.07, drawn from 60/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swansea 33% | Draw 26% | Ipswich 41%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 47%, Ipswich 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swansea's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Ipswich's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Swansea arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Ipswich winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Swansea (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ipswich (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights