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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Swansea and Hull City share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Swansea and Hull City drew 2-2 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.30 xG and Hull City 1.00 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hull City outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.94 / defence 0.89 against Hull City attack 0.93 / defence 1.03, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swansea 43% | Draw 28% | Hull City 29%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 42%, Hull City 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swansea's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Hull City's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swansea 1.36 PPG, Hull City 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Swansea (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights