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Prediction vindicated as Swansea edge out Hull City 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swansea beat Hull City 1-0 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.08 xG and Hull City 0.84 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hull City landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.02 / defence 0.96 against Hull City attack 0.88 / defence 0.83, drawn from 88/88 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swansea 41% | Draw 31% | Hull City 28%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 51%, Hull City 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swansea's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Hull City's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swansea 1.26 PPG, Hull City 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights