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Coventry cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Swansea.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coventry beat Swansea 0-2 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.45 xG and Coventry 1.28 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Swansea fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.06 / defence 1.20 against Coventry attack 1.03 / defence 1.00, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swansea 41% | Draw 27% | Coventry 32%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Coventry win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 55%, Coventry 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swansea's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Coventry's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swansea 1.21 PPG, Coventry 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coventry win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Coventry (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights