Swansea vs Cardiff – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Swansea (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Swansea face Cardiff.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Swansea host Cardiff at Swansea.com Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Swansea have posted 4W 3D 3L at Swansea.com Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Swansea.com Stadium this season.
Across all Championship games this season, Cardiff have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cardiff have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Swansea have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Swansea: 5 wins from 8 previous clashes against 2 for Cardiff, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2025, ended 0–3 with Cardiff winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Swansea and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Swansea in-play tendencies (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Cardiff in-play tendencies (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 53% versus Cardiff 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 51% | Cardiff 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.52 xG and Cardiff 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.862 / defence 0.703 | Cardiff attack 0.790 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.305. Cardiff bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Swansea's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Swansea's defence rating of 0.703 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Swansea games / 11 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 56% | Draw 26% | Cardiff 18%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Cardiff 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Swansea (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Swansea at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Swansea 50% | Cardiff 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 56% | Draw 26% | Cardiff 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 40% | xG Swansea 1.52 / Cardiff 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.862 / def 0.703 | Cardiff attack 0.790 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Swansea (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Cardiff xG
40%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Cardiff kick off?
Swansea vs Cardiff is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Swansea.com Stadium.
Where is Swansea vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Cardiff part of?
Swansea vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 56% chance of winning, Cardiff a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Swansea and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Cardiff?
Record (8 meetings): Swansea 5W | Draws 1 | Cardiff 2W.
What form are Swansea and Cardiff in?
Swansea (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Cardiff (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Swansea's attack rating (0.86) and Cardiff's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 2-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
56%
1.78
26%
3.85
18%
5.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.24
0.72
Cardiff xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
5.61
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
27%
3.67
4%
25.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 11.7 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Swansea and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Swansea and 0.72 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Cardiff?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swansea's recent record stands at 25W 12D 20L from 57 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cardiff, meanwhile, have gone 29W 15D 13L across 57 games — 1.79 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swansea on 1.53 PPG, Cardiff on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Swansea have managed 14W 8D 7L from 29 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cardiff's away record stands at 10W 10D 9L across 29 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cardiff's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Swansea are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.89 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
Cardiff
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 25W 12D 20L in their last 57 games (1.53 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 29W 15D 13L in their last 57 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Cardiff away?
Swansea's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.72 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2022, when Swansea won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Swansea's record when hosting Cardiff specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Swansea
1
Draws
2
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Cardiff?
From 8 meetings on record, Swansea have won 5, Cardiff have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Cardiff 3-0 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Cardiff?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 55%, Cardiff 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Swansea) and 52% (Cardiff).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Cardiff?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Swansea's games and 62% of Cardiff's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Swansea vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Swansea's recent games and 52% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Cardiff tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.